thechopwoodcarrywater.substack.com/@chop-wood-carry-water
Bio
Alexandru Dragut is a tech manager turned value investor who runs the Chop Wood, Carry Water Newsletter. He focuses on discovering businesses trading below their intrinsic value, inspired by investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. He shares his investment journal and journey to financial freedom on his Substack.
Ideas
5 Ideas
Graphic Packaging (GPK) A 19% Yield Hiding in Your Cereal Box
The article argues that Graphic Packaging (GPK) is currently undervalued due to temporary headwinds, including a major capital investment, pricing pressure, and softness in consumer packaged goods volumes. The author believes the business is not permanently impaired and is trading at a significant discount, generating ~$700M in annual owner earnings at a 19% yield. The summary also touches on the company's business model, recent strategic moves, and some of the author's remaining uncertainties.
Aeromexico post-IPO after Bankruptcy
The author analyzes Aeromexico post-bankruptcy and post-IPO, highlighting its position as Mexico's only full-service carrier with a strong hold on domestic corporate demand. While acknowledging the risks of the airline industry, the author is intrigued by Aeromexico's leaner cost structure, record operating margins, and loyal customer base. The summary also notes the company's solid liquidity and cash flow, but also points out the shareholders' equity deficit and the termination of its joint venture with Delta as potential risks.
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) 投资分析
主要经营地
美国/全球（开放互联网广告）
详细的生意模式
开放互联网DSP：按广告投放额抽取约20%take rate，聚焦CTV与零售媒体，并推动UID2身份体系提升定向能力。
护城河
规模与数据网络效应、客户高留存（11年95%+）；与媒体/广告主生态深度绑定。
估值水平
FCF/EV 4.9%；EV/EBITDA 15.7x；PE 28.7x
EV/Market Cap
0.91x
网络观点
🟡观察：作者认可业务质量与长期增长，但更偏watchlist，估值仍较高，需等待更好价格。
AI的观点
我的判断：极高质量的广告科技资产，但当前FCF收益率不高，回报更依赖持续高增长。价值投资倾向在广告周期低谷/市场风险偏好下降时买入。关注风险：隐私监管、Walled garden挤压与宏观广告预算波动。
作者简介
社媒 @alex_dragut；专业投资者否；顶级作者否；13F持仓否；1年回报41.5%；历史总回报33.7% (17 trades)
he Trade Desk ($TTD) Deep Dive: Wide Moat or AI Value Trap?
This is a quick pitch on The Trade Desk (TTD), a self-service, cloud-based platform for ad buyers. The author highlights TTD's value proposition of transparency and objectivity, its strong client retention, and its leadership in developing a cookie-less identity framework. The author also notes the company's consistent profitability and growth, but raises concerns about high stock-based compensation and the potential threat of AI to the open internet ad market. The author concludes that while TTD is a high-quality business, the valuation is not yet compelling enough for a buy, suggesting an ideal entry point below $20/share.
Portfolio Update - January 2026
In his January 2026 portfolio update, the author mentions his continued belief in the long-term value of his position in Alibaba (BABA), despite acknowledging the risks associated with corporate governance and trade tensions in China.