CI
The Cigna Group, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and related products and services in the United States. Its Evernorth Health Services segment provides a range of coordinated and po...
@tomicki on The Cigna Group (CI)
主要经营地
美国
详细生意模式
多元化健康服务公司,两大板块:Evernorth(85%收入)-PBM(Express Scripts)+专业药房(Accredo)+医疗护理;Cigna Healthcare-商业医疗保险。已退出Medicare Advantage(2024年出售给HCSC),业务转向较低风险的商业+服务
护城河
🟢强：PBM规模+专业药房+垂直整合
估值水平
PE 12.4x, EV/EBITDA 7.9x (UNH 15x、ELV 13x)
EV/Market Cap
EV $96B / MC $73B
网络观点
@tomicki多头观点:CI已成为按处方量计第一大PBM(超越CVS Caremark),Accredo是专业药房龙头,在MA板块崩盘前精明退出。Evernorth占收入85%、2025年增长17%,专业药房增速8-12%。9.2x 2026 PE($30.25 EPS)、~9% FCF收益率。2025年$3.6B回购,长期EPS目标10-14%
AI观点
CI是当前大型管理式医疗股中风险回报最佳之一。差异化优势:1)退出MA前瞻性远超同行,避开了UNH/HUM/ELV的医疗成本通胀冲击;2)PBM规模化+Accredo专业药房构成双重护城河;3)轻资本商业保险模式FCF转换率高。9.2x 2026 PE对盈利质量更高的业务组合是显著低估,折价反映PBM监管不确定性,但历史显示PBM监管多次"狼来了"未实质落地。GLP-1是双刃剑:短期推高药品成本但Accredo专业药房高margin获益。$3.6B回购占市值5%,与10-14% EPS增长目标叠加可实现15%+年化总回报
Bought $CI today @ ~$261
Bought $CI today @ ~$261. I managed to make a quick +18% over a couple of months in early in '25.