longtermpick.substack.com/@long-term-pick
Bio
Dan, the creator of Long-Term Pick, has over 12 years of experience in the IT industry as a software engineer and technical manager. He has been investing for over 5 years, focusing on long-term investments in high-quality companies with significant growth potential. He shares his stock analyses and investing notes on his Substack.
Ideas
3 Ideas
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) 投资分析
主要经营地
全球（美国总部）
详细的生意模式
流媒体订阅+广告变现平台，通过内容投入吸引用户，再通过提价、广告层与账户共享治理提升ARPU与利润。
护城河
全球规模+品牌+内容/推荐系统；在内容采购与分发上有议价与规模优势。
估值水平
FCF/EV 7.6%；EV/EBITDA 23.2x；PE 30.4x
EV/Market Cap
1.02x
网络观点
✅看多/观察：作者认为股价较内在价值折价约30%；盈利与FCF增长成为主线，广告收入成为新引擎。
AI的观点
我的判断：商业模式已从“用户数故事”切到“利润率/现金流故事”。YB口径FCF很高，建议核对内容资本化与摊销口径后再看真实自由现金流。若广告与价格策略持续兑现，长期仍是优质资产；价值投资的买点通常来自市场对内容投入/竞争的恐慌时刻。
作者简介
专业投资者否；顶级作者否；13F持仓否；1年回报20.8%；历史总回报22.4% (22 trades)
Netflix: From Subscriber Growth to Profit Growth
A comprehensive analysis of Netflix (NFLX). The company is shifting its focus from subscriber growth to profit growth, driven by advertising revenue and content expansion. The author believes that Netflix has a narrow economic moat due to its large subscriber base and engagement data. The author provides a fair price estimate and an investment thesis.
Toast: Platform Scale, Margin Expansion, and Long-Term Value Creation
A comprehensive analysis of Toast Inc. (TOST). The company provides a full digital operating platform for restaurants. The author highlights the company's platform scale, margin expansion potential, and long-term value creation. The author also discusses the company's narrow economic moat driven by switching costs.