hazelnutsresearch.substack.com/@hazelnuts-research
Bio
Hazelnuts Research are private investors who share personal investment ideas on their Substack. They aim to assist individuals who lack the time to read through extensive reports by providing distilled, clear, and actionable insights. They write and research their own reports, using AI only for grammar and wording corrections as they are not native English speakers.
Ideas
1 Ideas
Paypal Pypl Two Research Desks One Honest Conversation
主要经营地
全球（支付）
详细的生意模式
-
支付网络：PayPal 品牌收单、Braintree 处理、Venmo 等
-
收入来自 take-rate、交易服务费、增值服务
护城河
✅品牌与双边网络基础
⚠️竞争极强（Apple Pay、Stripe、Adyen 等）导致定价权下降
估值水平
FCF/EV=9.1%（≈EV/FCF 11.0x）
EV/Market Cap
1.05x
网络观点
- 文章核心是“经营拐点未现”：Q4 增速不佳、品牌结账放缓；董事会更换 CEO，进入不确定期 (hazelnutsresearch.substack.com)
AI的观点
🌟典型“便宜但需要催化”的转型股：估值不高，但必须看到业务重新加速或结构性提价能力
✅看点：新CEO策略、成本控制、回购力度
⚠️要核对：品牌结账份额、Braintree 增长质量、Venmo 商业化、take-rate 走势
❌风险：若竞争导致长期低增长，估值可能长期被压制