thedutchinvestors.substack.com/@the_dutch_investors
Bio
The Dutch Investors is a team of four passionate investors from the Netherlands. They focus on uncovering top businesses worldwide, with a special emphasis on European stocks that are often overlooked. They share their findings through high-quality research articles and a podcast, catering to an audience of over 4,000 subscribers on Substack.
Ideas
3 Ideas
Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) - The Dutch Investors
🌍 主要经营地： 美国（全球教育类App）
📊 生意模式： 语言学习为主，拓展音乐/数学；免费+订阅（Super等）变现，靠内容与产品体验驱动留存/付费。
🏰 护城河： ✅ 游戏化体验与品牌；用户规模带来数据/口碑循环。
⚠️ AI降低对话学习门槛，差异化可能被稀释。
💰 估值水平： FCF/EV≈6.7%（Unlevered）；TEV/EBITDA≈29.40x；P/E≈13.60
📈 EV/Market Cap： 0.80x
💡 网络观点： ✅ 作者复盘：曾忽视估值导致回撤；2025-11认为当前风险回报更好而加仓，但承认AI让未来更不确定。
🤖 AI观点： 快照估值与“高成长印象”反差大，说明市场对增速下滑/AI替代计价很重。判断点：①增长能否稳定（订阅净新增/ARPU）；②AI是威胁还是增强器（降内容成本/提个性化）。若能把AI用成增强器，估值可能给安全边际；否则可能价值陷阱。
✍️ 作者： The Dutch Investors（团队型Substack；偏交易复盘与反思）。
Duolingo | A personal story
The article details an analyst's investment journey with Duolingo, initiated in January 2022 based on an undervalued growth trajectory. Despite selling a portion in late 2023 due to valuation concerns after a significant price increase, the analyst doubled their stake in November 2025 at $166, citing a favorable risk/reward profile after a 75% price drop from its peak. The core investment thesis rests on Duolingo's durable competitive advantages, including its vast dataset on language learning, strong habit-forming product design, and strategic use of AI as a tool to enhance pedagogy rather than being replaced by it. A valuation scenario suggests that with revenue growth tapering to 10% and net margins expanding to 25% over ten years, the stock could generate an approximate 15% annual return.
The PayPal Problem
The article presents a detailed analysis of the challenges facing PayPal, describing it as a "PayPal Problem". Key issues identified include structural disadvantages against frictionless competitors like Apple Pay, dependency on payment rails owned by Visa and Mastercard, margin erosion due to growth in the low-margin Braintree business, a fragmented technology stack hindering innovation, and a loss of investor confidence. However, the analysis also points to a potential turnaround under the new CEO, contingent on three factors: growth in Transaction Margin Dollars (actual gross profit), successful adoption of the 'Fastlane' guest checkout feature to improve conversion rates, and effective monetization of the underutilized Venmo platform. The verdict is that PayPal is in a difficult transition, not a broken business, presenting a potential asymmetric opportunity for investors who can look past the prevailing skepticism.