minuscherry

VRSN short thesis. Growth is driven by high-churn registrars using ~50% rebates. Expects growth to slow in Q1 FY26E as renewals revert lower. Google banned ads on parked domains (~30% of .Com base), cutting parking revenue 85-90%, making renewals uneconomical. Domain base growth likely turns negative in FY26E.

VRSN (short): YTD .Com growth driven by high-churn registrars using ~50% rebates, with growth inflecting down in FY2026E as scaling laws hit. 6 registrars w/ ~14% lower renewal rates (~63% vs 73%) now 12.4% of domains. Google killed parked domain ads (~30% of domains), dropping revenues 85-90%, forcing non-renewal. 25-50% downside as narrative shifts back to melting ice cube.

MH short: secular decliner w/ favorable technical setup. PE-backed IPO down 9% since July, Platinum (87% owner) likely selling post-lockup Jan 2026 for fund raise DPI. Author lawsuit may increase royalties 25-30%, cutting margins 370bps. Renewals down 15-20%, ESSER funding ending, enrollment cliff -1% CAGR thru 2040. 26-52% downside in <12mo on 6x EBITDA vs current 7x.

FIVE: Deep value at 12.8% FCF yield, 49% below historic TEV/EBITDA. SSS misses in 2024 due to tough Squishmallow comps (8% to 0.5% mix), not structural TEMU threat. April 2024's -10.9% SSS creating easy Q1'26 comp. 3,500 store target (vs 1,749) supports 10-30% IRR. Catalysts: Q4'25 guidance (3/19/25), Q1'26 potential beat. Five Beyond conversions add 1.25% quarterly SSS uplift.

DND.TO: Significant churn masked by revenue pull-forwards. Unity logins -60%, competitors +500%. 3-yr contracts booked upfront. Real estate & business law segments face existential risks. CEO Proud's compensation & governance issues. Leverage concerns. Q3'FY25E catalyst as contracts expire. Potential restructuring or exposure of accounting gimmicks.