PBR stock pitch - 2026-01-15

PBR (overview): Brazil's national oil co at $15, valued $20-25. 88% of Brazil's production, 80%+ earnings from E&P. Pre-salt fields produce 1.81M boe/d but exploration declining - only 2 of 17 wells in 2023 were productive. Political risk overstated; CEO fired for dividend but $2.67/share capacity at $80 Brent = 17.6% yield. 11.5yr reserves, $43.6B net debt vs $40B cash flow. Target $30.13 at $100 oil (100% upside). Prefer buying at $12-13 on fear.