Daily Ideas·Pitch·KSPI·2025年10月19日

$KSPI | Cash or Kaspi - A Wildly Cheap Regional Powerhouse

Kaspi.kz is a super app in Kazakhstan with a dominant market position in payments, e-commerce, and fintech, used by 75% of the population. The company exhibits strong financial characteristics, including a low P/E ratio (7x TTM, 6.5x forward), high ROE (>50%), and significant earnings growth (>25%). Despite its impressive performance and valuation, the stock faces risks related to geopolitical instability (Russia), currency fluctuations, and uncertainties surrounding its expansion into Turkey. A short report from Culper Research raised concerns, but the author suggests they are largely debunked. The investment thesis hinges on whether the company's strong fundamentals and cheap valuation outweigh the macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

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