Here’s Black Bear Value Partners’ Updates on Warrior Met Coal (HCC)

Black Bear Value Partners, in their Q2 2025 investor letter, highlighted Warrior Met Coal (HCC) as a leading metallurgical coal producer. Despite a 40% YoY revenue decrease in Q1 2025 due to lower met coal prices, the company showcased a 10% production increase and effective cost control. The firm notes that while HCC is currently investing heavily in its Blue Creek mine, leading to negative free cash flow, this project is expected to conclude by the beginning of 2026. Post-investment, Black Bear anticipates a significant surge in free cash flow, estimating an annual generation of $200M to $850M, which translates to a potential 9-35% unlevered free-cash-flow yield.