Alex's Investment Memo on Cooper-Standard Holdings (CPS)

主要经营地 US

详细生意模式 Tier 1汽车供应商,密封+液体处理。BYD brake share 0%→25%。$1.1B refi完成。

护城河 🟡中：OEM relationships+EV content premium,但执行风险高

估值水平 EV/EBITDA 6.2x, 2028E 3.7x(同行Aptiv~18x PE)

EV/Market Cap EV $1.5B / MC $0.5B

网络观点 Margin recovery locked in(2026 100% booked +500bp)。EBITDA path $167M→$210M→$260-300M。China BYD+EV content。Refi saves $13M/yr。2028E 3.7x→>100% upside。

AI观点 FY25 EBITDA $209.7M确认。$25M FX headwind未计入。BYD ramp execution delay possible。Turnaround compelling,small-mid position for 2-3yr。