Fermat on Maplebear Inc. (Instacart) (CART)
主要经营地 US
详细生意模式 美国eGrocery龙头,3P模式,75%杂货支出控制力,$75+ AOV。Q4 GTV $9.85B(+14%),adj EBITDA $303M(+20%)。
护城河 🟢强：大篮子粘性+3P capital-light+密度飞轮
估值水平 PE 24.3x, EV/EBITDA 16.2x
EV/Market Cap EV $8.8B / MC $9.3B
网络观点 目标$90/sh(+33% 3yr IRR at 15x EBIT)。3P vs 1P价格优势。OpEx leverage margin扩至24%。密度飞轮有说服力。
AI观点 EBITDA growth 20%>收入增速,证实leverage。但EPS miss 42%因$60M FTC settlement。PE 24x合理但留白不足,wait $35-36。
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