Cedrica's Substack on Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
主要经营地 US
详细生意模式 半导体+VMware基础设施软件。$73B AI backlog。Custom XPU(Google TPU7,Meta,Apple)。VMware VCF upsell。
护城河 🟢强(AI芯片)：hyperscaler锁定+VMware粘性+custom silicon能力
估值水平 PE 61.3x, EV/EBITDA 41.2x, FCF Yield 1.8%(AI溢价)
EV/Market Cap EV $1.54T / MC $1.49T
网络观点 BUY@$310,PT $415(34%)。$73B backlog蕴含$48B FY26-27 rev。VMware 80% upsell至VCF,90%+ GM。Net debt $49B→$5B by FY27。
AI观点 Q1 FY26确认$73B backlog真实。VMware upsell 80%过于乐观(历史50-60%)。$310接近fair value,短期看好但中期谨慎。关注hyperscaler capex周期。
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