everyonehatespoetry on CMCO (CMCO)
公司名称：Columbus McKinnon (做空)
主要经营地：美国
详细生意模式：物料搬运机械制造商；拟$2.7B收购Kito Crosby(10x EBITDA)，杠杆升至8.4x；$800M CD&R优先股@7% PIK、可转债@$38
护城河：🔴弱：核心业务滑坡+激进杠杆收购+宏观不确定性三重叠加
估值水平：净债务$3.24B+优先股，利息负担沉重；做空目标$7
EV/Market Cap：TEV $872M / MCap $395M
网络观点：10x EBITDA激进定价+8.4x杠杆+宏观衰退=完美风暴；$7下跌目标
AI观点：交易规模相对基础业务太大($1.2B新增收入vs基础滑坡)；即使100%达成$70M协同也难以承载当前负债；融资成本高(7% PIK)且复杂
原文日期：2026-03-25
作者简介：顶级作者，总回报28.9%
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