Calumet, SAF First Cash Next

CLMT is a specialty hydrocarbons and renewable fuels company. The company recently closed a $1.44bn loan from the DOE, which will result in $80m/yr in interest savings. It also sold its Royal Purple brand for $110m (10x EBITDA). The EPA granted Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs), cutting the company's Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) liability from 396m to 89m. The MaxSAF150 expansion is expected to increase production to 120-150m gallons by Q2 2026 for a capex of $20-30m. The bull case price target is $80/share, with a base case of $47/share. Key risks include the refinancing of the 2026 notes, the recovery of the Renewable Diesel (RD) margin, and the pace of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) adoption.