First Advantage

First Advantage is a tactical trade on a labor market inflection with valuation support. The stock is -33% over the past month and -47% from its 52-week high on soft hiring volumes, tariff-driven policy uncertainty, and nonsensical AI fears. FA currently trades at 8x FY26 EV/EBITDA and a 6% unlevered FCF yield. Stabilization in hiring volumes is sufficient to re-rate the stock, and a strong fiscal backdrop makes recession risk highly unlikely with a potential for reacceleration that could drive FA back to $20 per share or 90% upside from its current price in a bull case scenario. $15 is my base case with an implied 43% upside from today’s price of $10.50.