Bubbles, Bottlenecks, and Blackwells

This piece is a state of play for investors. We summarize the current moment: the scale of capital being deployed, where real bottlenecks exist, how system-level advances like Blackwell are shifting constraints, how unit economics are evolving, and why enterprise adoption still lags consumer use. The aim is to give investors a coherent snapshot of where AI stands today, what is driving returns, and what factors will determine where value accrues next. A quick aside on valuations: At its peak AOL had a market cap of $220B with 25mm subs valuing each sub at $10k as everyone thought they would be the gateway to the internet. Giving Open AI the same value, it would be at a $10T valuation, it is about 1/20th of that.