China’s Property Developers: The Other Side of the Coin

This article revisits the author's May 2025 thesis on Chinese property developers. The original thesis predicted a divergence between SOE and POE developers, with SOEs outperforming. Nine months later, the author assesses the accuracy of this prediction, noting that while the divergence is happening, the risks remain significant. The piece serves as a follow-up to a January article on property management companies, examining the upstream effects on developers. Due to a pending regulatory license, specific portfolio updates are withheld.