Saniona Q1: More deals on the menu

Redeye returns with an updated view of Saniona following the Q1 report and recent events in the company. The report contained no significant surprises. Revenues amounted to SEK9.8m (6.9) and are attributed to Saniona's licensing and partnership agreements with Boehringer Ingelheim, AstronauTx, Cephagenix and Acadia Pharmaceuticals. OPEX came in at SEK26.2m (19.7) and total cash flow was SEK-33.5m (40.5), leaving a solid cash position of SEK260.7m. After the period, Saniona received gross SEK115m from the TO 4 warrant program. Furthermore, a milestone of USD10m is expected from Acadia upon the start of phase II with SAN711 next year. Acadia’s USD610m (USD28m upfront) licensing of SAN711 in November 2024 validates Saniona’s scientific foundation and business model, and the company remains focused on delivering additional out-licensing agreements. Saniona states that securing another deal of similar magnitude would provide non-dilutive funding sufficient to advance its remaining two in-house programs. Redeye values Saniona based on a 2025e-2042e DCF model, applying a WACC of 14%. Although the weaker dollar weighs somewhat on the valuation, minor upward revisions to commercial assumptions offset this. Redeye reiterates a fair value range of SEK3-25 with a base case of SEK12. Key triggers for the share price include tesofensine approval in Mexico and potential new out-licensing agreements.