Daily Ideas·Bearish·MH·2025年8月3日

McGraw Hill, Inc. - $MH (short)

minuscherry
YellowBrick

MH short: secular decliner w/ favorable technical setup. PE-backed IPO down 9% since July, Platinum (87% owner) likely selling post-lockup Jan 2026 for fund raise DPI. Author lawsuit may increase royalties 25-30%, cutting margins 370bps. Renewals down 15-20%, ESSER funding ending, enrollment cliff -1% CAGR thru 2040. 26-52% downside in <12mo on 6x EBITDA vs current 7x.

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