Booking 4Q25: The Toll Road

AI will crush the interface layer (search + metasearch), but travel’s real moat is the execution layer: merchant-of-record complexity, fraud, refunds, FX, compliance, and 24/7 service. Q4 confirmed Booking is becoming travel’s transaction infrastructure: merchant mix hit ~70% (up from 50% two years ago) while agency revenue declined. The key risk isn’t disruption, it’s toll extraction: if AI agents become demand routers, Booking may stay essential but pay a new “Google tax” to the dominant interface.