Soccer, chems and 'warnings'

Borussia Dortmund delivered a clear step up in profitability in H1 2025-26, largely supported by transfer activity. Consolidated revenue excluding gross transfer proceeds came in at €246.4m, broadly stable year on year. Including €70.1m of gross transfer proceeds, total operating proceeds reached €316.5m, up 12.3% versus last year. EBITDA increased to €81.7m from €58.7m, lifting the margin to 33.2% from 24.0%. Higher net transfer income more than compensated for rising personnel expenses, including bonuses linked to the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. The first half once again shows how sensitive earnings are to player trading, but it also highlights the operating leverage embedded in the model when sporting and transfer outcomes align. For the full year 2025-26, management guides for revenue of €475m and EBITDA between €105m and €115m. After an €81.7m EBITDA in H1, the target range looks achievable provided sporting performance holds and no major negative surprises occur in the second half. The equity case continues to revolve around three levers: consistent qualification for European competitions, disciplined wage management, and monetisation of player assets. The current valuation implies a muted view on these drivers despite a strengthened balance between operating income and transfer gains. Volatility will remain part of the story, but H1 confirms that profitability can recover quickly when the transfer window delivers.