FOUR

🌍 主要经营地： 美国（商户收单/支付）

📊 生意模式： 支付处理+软件/硬件一体化；通过并购POS/垂直软件，把交易量导入自家支付通道赚持续处理费。

🏰 护城河： ✅ 垂直软件+硬件部署→切换成本高。

✅ 若长期证明“买软件→导入支付→提EBITDA”的ROI稳定，形成资本配置护城河。

⚠️ 支付竞争、费率下行；并购整合与杠杆。

💰 估值水平： FCF/EV≈5.1%（Unlevered）；TEV/EBITDA≈12.38x；P/E≈27.84

📈 EV/Market Cap： 2.17x

💡 网络观点： ✅ 摘要：并购剧本5年投入$2.7B带来约$510M增量EBITDA（约19%无杠杆ROI）；预计2027 FCF约$900M，EV/FCF<10x；创始人增持、$1B回购。

🤖 AI观点： 估值不贵但杠杆不低（EV/MC≈2.17x）。判断点：①并购ROI是否可持续（留存/交叉销售/费率稳定）；②去杠杆路径（FCF优先回购还是还债，利率敏感度）；③差异化能否对抗Adyen/Stripe/Fiserv等。若2027 FCF目标可信，上行空间可观，但需严密跟踪整合与负债结构。

✍️ 作者： The Market Maven / Matt Lindsay（Substack作者；Value & Error）。

The author argues that Shift4 is significantly undervalued, trading at ~9x NTM earnings and under ~5x 2027 FCF if management hits their targets. The company has a $1 billion buyback authorization (~20% of market cap) and the founder was buying aggressively at higher prices. Despite the stock hitting 52-week lows, the author believes the market is missing the company's growth and operating leverage.

The author argues that Shift4 is significantly undervalued, trading at ~9x NTM earnings and under ~5x 2027 FCF if management hits their targets. The company has a $1 billion buyback authorization (~20% of market cap) and the founder was buying aggressively at higher prices. Despite the stock hitting 52-week lows, the author believes the market is missing the company's growth and operating leverage.